Features
Is this Cadel's biggest year?
By
Rupert Guinness : 01-Jul-2010
The tour has a habit of dishing up surprises against expectations.
It could be said Evans' best chances to win the Tour have passed after he failed to win the Tour at his two best opportunities - in 2007 when he was beaten by 23 seconds by Spaniard Alberto Contador and 2008 when Spain's Carlos Sastre won by 58 seconds.
The argument against Evans strengthens when it is pointed out that while he made a wise choice to leave his Belgian team - now named Omega Pharma-Lotto - to lead BMC in the aftermath of internal politics, his new team appears to be no stronger.
At the Giro, only four of his teammates finished the race. And while the calibre of rider picked to help him in the Tour will strengthen, it is hard to believe that its collective impact will make the difference that Liquigas' team did for Basso et al.
Add to the fact that a number of other teams will be as strong - if not stronger - than Liquigas was at the Giro, the challenge for Evans could be even greater in the Tour.
In that category, think of Contador, although his team's strength is uncertain, and Sastre (Cervelo), Luxembourg's Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank), Americans Lance Armstrong and Levi Leipheimer (RadioShack) and Australian Michael Rogers (HTC-Columbia), who has returned as a contender after two years recovering from injury, illness and misfortune by winning this year's Ruta del Sol and Tour of California.
However, the Tour does have a knack for providing surprises; and if Evans' consistency is any gauge, the 33-year-old Victorian should at least be in the fray.
And once a rider is in the fray, he is always in with a chance of winning the Tour.
So instead of looking for reasons why Evans CAN'T win the Tour, as it is easy to do, why don't we think about how and why he CAN win? Certainly, Evans would!
For starters, Evans appears to be in the form of his career. And there is no question that he is racing with confidence far beyond what has driven him in recent years.
Ever since he won the world championship last year - and wore the rainbow jersey that goes with the title - he has raced with far more assuredness and competitive intent. That does not always convert to winning races - even though he has been winning.
It can also help him to handle the setbacks that come along the way. In years past, coping with setbacks has been hard, but now he seems to know how to take them in their stride and move on. Handling that stress limits wasted mental and physical energy that in turn means he is better prepared to produce his best when it counts.
This year's Tour route that begins in Rotterdam in the Netherlands, and will work its way through the Alps and then the Pyrenees before finishing in Paris on July 25, should also work in Evans' favour. First, there is the absence of a team time trial.
As the Giro reminded us, Evans has always been forced into a virtual catch-up of time whenever there has been a team time trial, so poor have his teams been in this difficult yet specialised discipline. As if being isolated on the mountains is not hard enough to deal with, the surrender of up to two or three minutes through a team time trial has been as potentially devastating on the moral for Evans as it has been on the clock.
Also helping Evans is that for one of the most dangerous days - stage three from Wanz to Arenberg, when the route hits cobblestones - by his side will be American teammate George Hincapie who is one of the best in the business in riding over them.
If not Hincapie, many of BMC's other Tour riders - while lacking climbing prowess to help in the Alps and Pyrenees - will be experienced in handling the argy-bargy style of racing in that stage and in the other flatter but narrow roads of the Netherlands, Belgium and northern France in that first and very nervous and frenetic week.
The dangers that those roads pose for riders such as Evans, who are not accustomed to riding over such treacherous terrain, are huge. One fall, and the Tour can be over.
So if his teammates can help him avoid such misfortune it will be mission accomplished.
Of course, Hincapie will be more than a wing pilot for Evans for the cobblestones.
The American road champion is the only rider to have ridden for Lance Armstrong in all seven of his Tour wins.
His value will not just be in tactical advice through his savvy read of a race, but also - as one of the most easygoing and friendly riders in the peloton - will be in helping to lift morale and maintain calm when things are tense.
Nevertheless, such attributes can only help so far; but if Evans can at least get to the crunch days of the Tour - in the mountains - feeling more relaxed and confident in his ability than he was at his old team (now Omega Pharma-Lotto), then he will be better equipped to handle the war on wheels that erupts around him between the big teams such as Astana, RadioShack, Saxo Bank, HTC-Columbia, Cervelo and Liquigas.
The Tour will be no more explosive than in the third week when it reaches the Pyrenees where four stages will be raced.
And the highlight there will be stage 17 from Pau to the summit of the Tourmalet that the Tour will also pass on stage 16.
This will be the last mountain stage of the Tour and should set the race up for a spectacular scrap for final places in the penultimate and 19th stage time trial, 51km from Bordeaux to Pauillac that should suit Evans and all the overall contenders. Ironically, Evans' best asset may be the perceived weakness of his team, which will minimise his threat in the eyes of many, despite his record as a regular contender.
So long as he can remain healthy, avoid crashes and begin the third week feeling fresher than his opponents who will have to absorb the mentally sapping attention of fans, sponsors and media, maybe he can play off their tactics, catch everyone off guard and sneak through a gap? And maybe - just maybe - he could win the Tour!
OK, it's a chance. And maybe it's a slim chance. But if Evans can believe it and train and race so hard to make best that chance, shouldn't we at least believe in him?